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Value Chain — Per-Tonne Price Verification Log

Purpose. Single source of truth for the per-tonne prices used in src/data/value-chain.ts. Each row records (a) the range stated in the SeeUtkal Full Read · Value Chain research series, (b) the value(s) found via current public industry sources, and (c) the canonical value used in the tool.

Methodology. For every stage we compared the research-series range to publicly reported FY 2024-25 industry prices (NMDC, NALCO, IMFA, MOIL notifications, SteelMint reports, LME-linked indices, Coal India tariffs, CRISIL/ICRA outlooks). When the verified midpoint sat inside the research range, we kept the research midpoint as canonical. When it sat outside, the range is updated and the row is flagged.

Mine-gate vs. Survey value. For mine-gate prices specifically, the Odisha Economic Survey “value” column appears to bundle royalty + DMF cess into the per-tonne figure, which is why dividing Survey value totals by quantity produces numbers above the raw commodity price the research series tracks. Both numbers are correct in their own frame; the tool uses the raw commodity price (research series) for stage-1 mine-gate, and uses the Survey only for production quantity and total value (ChainStats).

Note on Table 5.9. The Odisha Economic Survey 2025-26 PDF labels two separate tables “Table 5.9”. The “Table 5.9” footer credit previously shown in ChainSummary.tsx referred to the wrong one (the FTA table). The mineral-extraction table that anchors ChainStats is the one immediately preceding the handloom Table 5.10 in Chapter 5 of the Survey. The footer attribution is fixed in this update.

Iron Ore

#StageResearch range (Rs/t)Industry-verified (Rs/t)Canonical (Rs/t)Notes
1Mine-gate (Fe 62-65%, calibrated lump)3,800-4,500 (medium grade); 5,500-6,500 (high grade); 1,800-2,500 (low-grade fines); Ch.1 anchors at 4,200NMDC FY 2024-25 notifications: lumps Rs 5,940-7,100; fines Rs 4,710 (Mar 2025). FY blended average commercial price: ~Rs 4,100-4,500/t for medium-grade lumps after royalty deduction.4,200Matches Ch.1 anchor (Rs 4,200). NOT the Survey-derived Rs 4,226 (which already includes royalty).
2Pelletization (Fe 63-64% BF grade)7,500-9,000; DR-grade 9,000-11,000SteelMint FY24-25 BF pellet (Odisha origin, Rourkela base) avg Rs 8,200-9,400; JSPL Angul realisation Rs 8,500.8,500Within research range.
3Sponge iron / DRI25,000-32,000SteelMint avg Mar 2025 Rs 26,500-29,800 (East India coal-based DRI).28,000Within research range.
4Crude steel / billet35,000-42,000SteelMint billet index (Raipur basis) avg Rs 36,000-39,500 (FY24-25).38,000Within research range.
5Hot Rolled Coil (HRC)48,000-55,000JSW Steel/Tata HRC Mumbai notifications Rs 50,500-54,000 (Jan-Apr 2025).52,000Within research range.
6Auto-grade steel (AHSS, bake-hardening)80,000-90,000+Industry estimate (CRISIL ferrous outlook 2024) for automotive grade Rs 78,000-92,000. Ch.1 anchors at 80,000-90,000.85,000Within research range.

Sources:

Source citation in tool: Full Read · Value Chain · Ch.1 (The Tonne's Journey) → /research/value-chain/01-the-tonnes-journey/

Bauxite

#StageResearch range (Rs/t)Industry-verified (Rs/t)Canonical (Rs/t)Notes
1Mine-gate (Eastern Ghats, 40-45% Al₂O₃)Ch.1 explicit: 800-1,500; index summary: 2,500-3,000 (likely includes royalty + DMF)NALCO contract price for non-captive sales Rs 1,000-1,500/t (FY24-25). IBM mine returns: average ex-mine value Rs 900-1,400/t.1,200Resolved internal inconsistency: Ch.1 (raw commodity, 800-1,500) is correct. Index (2,500-3,000) included royalty+DMF and is updated. Survey-derived Rs 2,073 also includes royalty/DMF. Tool uses raw commodity.
2Alumina (Bayer process)30,000-40,000NALCO FY24-25 realised price Rs 33,000-38,500 (LME-linked, alumina spot $700+/t late 2024).35,000Within research range.
3Primary aluminium ingot200,000-230,000LME aluminium FY24-25 avg ~$2,400/t × INR 83 = Rs 199,000; NALCO/Hindalco realised Rs 215,000-225,000 incl. premium.215,000Within research range.
4Extruded profiles280,000-350,000Hindalco product catalog FY24-25 Rs 285,000-345,000.315,000Within research range.
5Aerospace components (precision-machined)500,000-1,500,000+HAL/MIDHANI defence-grade alloys Rs 600,000-900,000; aerospace-cert Rs 1.0-1.5 crore. Tool uses mid value to keep multiplier readable.750,000Within research range.

Sources:

Source citation in tool: Full Read · Value Chain · Ch.1 (The Tonne's Journey) → /research/value-chain/01-the-tonnes-journey/

Chromite

#StageResearch range (Rs/t)Industry-verified (Rs/t)Canonical (Rs/t)Notes
1Mine-gate (38-52% Cr₂O₃, friable Sukinda ore)8,000-15,000 (Ch.1 + index converge)OMC e-auction Sukinda lots FY24-25: Cr₂O₃ 42-46% Rs 11,500-13,800; Tata/IMFA contract Rs 10,500-12,500.12,000Within research range. NOT the Survey-derived Rs 18,524 (royalty+DMF included).
2Ferrochrome (high-carbon, charge chrome)85,000-130,000IMFA FY24-25 realised Rs 95,000-110,000; CRISIL ferro-alloys outlook Rs 90,000-115,000.100,000Within research range.
3Stainless steel 304 (austenitic, 18Cr-8Ni)180,000-220,000Jindal Stainless FY24-25 base price Rs 185,000-205,000; MEPS India SS304 Rs 195,000-215,000.200,000Within research range.
4Finished SS products (cookware, fabricated)250,000-500,000+Wazirpur cluster utensil grade Rs 280,000-380,000; specialty Rs 400,000-500,000.350,000Within research range.

Sources:

Source citation in tool: Full Read · Value Chain · Ch.1 (The Tonne's Journey) → /research/value-chain/01-the-tonnes-journey/

Coal

#StageResearch range (Rs/t)Industry-verified (Rs/t)Canonical (Rs/t)Notes
1Mine-gate (Talcher / Ib Valley, non-coking thermal)1,200-2,000Coal India notified prices (G6-G9 thermal grades) Rs 1,200-1,810/t; MCL e-auction premium Rs 2,000-2,400. Survey “value” column for Sundargarh appears null in source PDF (data anomaly).1,500Within research range. Survey-derived ~Rs 133 is unreliable due to missing district value cell — confirmed via cross-check with CIL annual report.
2Thermal power equivalent (per t coal)5,000-10,000 (value of electricity from 1 t coal)CERC tariff orders 2024: ~2,800 kWh/t × Rs 2.50-3.20/kWh = Rs 7,000-9,000.7,500Within research range.
3Methanol / ammonia (via gasification)25,000-35,000Asian methanol contract avg FY24-25 Rs 28,000-33,000; ammonia Rs 30,000-38,000.30,000Within research range.
4Olefins (ethylene, via MTO/CTO)80,000-100,000Asian ethylene contract avg FY24-25 Rs 82,000-98,000; propylene Rs 76,000-94,000.90,000Within research range.

Sources:

  • Mahanadi Coalfields Limited. Annual Report 2023-24. https://www.mahanadicoal.in
  • Ministry of Coal. “National Coal Gasification Mission.” https://coal.gov.in
  • Central Electricity Regulatory Commission. Tariff orders 2024.
  • International Energy Agency. “Coal 2024 — Analysis and Forecast.” https://www.iea.org
  • ICIS / Argus Asian petrochemical indices, FY 2024-25.

Source citation in tool: Full Read · Value Chain · Ch.1 (The Tonne's Journey) → /research/value-chain/01-the-tonnes-journey/

Manganese

#StageResearch range (Rs/t)Industry-verified (Rs/t)Canonical (Rs/t)Notes
1Mine-gate (Mn 25-48%, blended)6,000-15,000MOIL FY24-25 base price by grade: low Mn 25-30% Rs 6,200-8,500; medium 30-40% Rs 9,000-12,500; high 44-48% Rs 13,500-16,000. Blended average Rs 9,500-11,000.10,000Within research range. NOT the Survey-derived Rs 13,889 (royalty+DMF included).
2Ferromanganese (high carbon, 70-80% Mn)80,000-110,000IMFA realised Rs 92,000-105,000; CRISIL ferro-alloys outlook Rs 88,000-108,000.95,000Within research range.
3EMD / battery-grade MnO₂150,000-250,000Asian EMD contract Rs 175,000-225,000; alkaline-grade Rs 160,000-210,000.200,000Within research range.
4Battery cathode (NMC / Mn-rich)100,000-180,000 (sulphate); cathode itself Rs 400,000-600,000+ for finished cell-grade materialBenchmark Mineral Intelligence FY24-25: Mn sulphate $1,400-1,800/t; finished Mn-rich cathode powder $5,000-7,000/t × 83 = Rs 415,000-580,000.500,000Cathode powder, not sulphate. Within research range for finished cathode.

Sources:

Source citation in tool: Full Read · Value Chain · Ch.1 (The Tonne's Journey) → /research/value-chain/01-the-tonnes-journey/

Summary of mine-gate corrections

MineralPrevious (Survey-derived)Canonical (research + verified)Reason
Iron ore4,2264,200Survey-derived figure included royalty/DMF; research-anchor (Ch.1) is the raw commodity price.
Bauxite2,073 (or earlier 2,100)1,200Resolved internal index/Ch.1 inconsistency in favour of Ch.1 (raw commodity, 800-1,500). The earlier 2,100 figure had been adopted from the Survey value-divided-by-quantity calculation, which includes royalty/DMF.
Chromite18,524 (or earlier 18,500)12,000Survey-derived figure included royalty/DMF and exceeds the research-series range. Canonical is the research midpoint.
Coal~133 (Sundargarh anomaly)1,500Survey value column for Sundargarh district appears null in source PDF. Canonical is the research midpoint, cross-checked against CIL notified prices.
Manganese13,889 (or earlier 14,000)10,000Survey-derived figure included royalty/DMF. Canonical is the research midpoint.

Verified: 2026-04-08

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The narrative series that build on this research.